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Whatever it means for financial markets this week, 5 August will be remembered as the day when US hegemony was lost. All this is terrible news for Barack Obama. He has not delivered economic recovery. The US is drowning in negative equity and foreclosed homes. No president since Roosevelt has won an election with unemployment as high as it is today.

Fiscal policy will be tightened over the coming months as tax breaks expire and public spending is cut. The Federal Reserve only has the blunt instrument of QE with which to stimulate the economy, and will only be able to deploy it after a softening up process for the markets that will take several months.

On top of that, Obama will now be branded as the president who presided over the national humiliation of a debt downgrade. Not that the Europeans should get too smug about this, because what we are witnessing is not just the decline of the US but the decline of the west.

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One response to last week's meltdown was the announcement of talks between the G7 — the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Japan — but while this would have been appropriate 20 years ago it is not going to calm markets today. Holding a G7 meeting without China today is like expecting the League of Nations without the US to tackle totalitarianism in the s. There is no happy ending to this story. At best there will be a long period of weak growth and high unemployment as individuals and banks pay down the excessive levels of debt accumulated in the bubble years.

After Record-Long Expansion, Here’s What Could Knock the Economy Off Course

At worst, the global economy will be plunged back into recession next year as the US goes backwards and the euro comes apart at the seams. The second, gloomier scenario, looks a lot more likely now than it did a week ago. Because there is no international co-operation. There are plans for austerity but no plans for growth. Even countries that could borrow money for fiscal stimulus packages reluctant to do so.

Europe lacks the political will to force the pace of integration necessary to avoid disintegration of the single currency.

17.2 The Great Depression, positive feedbacks, and aggregate demand

Commodity prices are coming down, but that is the only good news. We are less than halfway through the crisis that began on 9 August That crisis has just entered a dangerous new phase. Topics Global economy. Reuse this content. Order by newest oldest recommendations.

Show 25 25 50 All. Threads collapsed expanded unthreaded. Focusing on consumer spending, this section covers employment related to each final demand component annually during the latest recession and the recovery years through The section concludes with an analysis of long-run trends affected by the recent recession. Tables 2 and 3 document output and employment levels in the recession tied to each final demand component, as well as showing projections to At that time, Goods-producing industries claimed 8.

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As the housing market collapsed and the financial crisis ensued, spending and employment relating to private fixed investment—which includes spending on structures, equipment, and software related to production—continued to decline from its peak, sparking economic contraction see figures 7—9. Employment supported by consumer spending decreased slightly as consumer-supported jobs fell by 7, see figure 9 and table 3. Nearly all PCE-related employment declines were confined to goods-producing industries see table 4. Investment-related employment essentially accounted for the entirety of job declines for the whole economy in Government-related spending and employment at the federal level increased, while state and local government-related spending and employment remained virtually flat.

Export-related spending and employment increased slightly see figures 7—9. This was the lowest PCE value registered in the recession. Services were particularly affected, especially transportation, food services, recreation, and financial services. PCE-related employment declined that year by 2. Of those 2. More PCE-related and total jobs were lost in than any other year in the recession see figure 9 and table 3.

Excluding government-related employment gains, lower consumer spending was associated with one-third of the 6.

Economic Outlook 2019: Chicago

Half of the 6. Exports have been a bright spot in the U. Meanwhile, employment related to federal, state, and local governments increased by a combined , Consumer spending slowly recovered through after bottoming out in the second quarter of The revival in spending, however, was the weakest since the s, especially for services and nondurable goods. With weak growth, in PCE contributed less to GDP growth than did gross private investment—the first time since Typically, employment tends to lag output in recovery from recessions.

This held for PCE-related and, consequently, total employment in the latest recession. Even as PCE slowly recovered, PCE-related employment continued to decline through with , fewer jobs—a smaller decrease than in —as the economy began to turn around see figures 8 and 9. In contrast, employment levels increased or decreased the same year that output levels did for the investment, export, and government sectors in the Great Recession.

PCE-related employment recovery was also impaired by weak spending on labor-intensive services and lower purchases towards goods-producing industries. A similar number of consumer-related jobs in goods-producing industries were lost a decline of , jobs as service-providing ones a , decline in see table 4. Consumer-related employment accounted for the majority State and local government-related employment, experiencing its first decline in this business cycle, accounted for the remainder of the decrease. Meanwhile, export-related employment improved, while investment-related employment remained essentially flat.

Employment and spending related to the federal government peaked in , supported by the employment increase with the administration of the Census see figures 7—9 and tables 2—3. In total, the number of jobs tied to consumer demand declined by 3. By , PCE-related employment stood at levels last seen in The recession had a disproportionate impact on goods-producing industries: although less than 10 percent of PCE-related jobs are involved in making goods, these industries represented Services accounted for the remaining The total economy experienced a net decline of 7.

This represents a 5. After federal government—related employment increases are excluded, a total 8. PCE-related employment accounted for over a third of this decline— Because of its cyclical nature, investment-related employment experienced much larger and more rapid declines than all other sectors of the economy: between its peak and trough — , investment-related employment fell Many of those jobs were related to the construction industry.

The remainder of the decline between and was in export-related employment 4. In consumer spending grew 2. The 3-year journey back to spending levels was the slowest recovery from recession since World War II. However, 2. With In overall employment increased by 1. Federal government—related employment began to decline from its peak, while export-related employment reached levels.


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Declining government-related employment at the federal, state, and local levels, as well as weak investment-related employment growth, were the primary causes of low employment growth in see figures 8—9 and table 3. In consumer spending and its related employment expanded slower than in , as the unemployment rate remained elevated around 8 percent in the United States and the Eurozone slipped into another recession.

PCE increased 1. In PCE-related employment finally recovered recessionary losses see figure 8. Because the time series of employment relating to consumption only extends back to , the recovery from the latest recession can only be compared with the recession. In the recession, PCE-related employment took 3 years to recover to highs, and total employment took 4 years to recover.

follow link In the most recent recession, PCE-related employment recovered in 5 years, while total employment required 7. The quicker recovery of PCE-related employment in comparison with the overall economy reflects the relatively stability of consumption during the business cycle, the strong performance of some of its subsectors see next section , and the negative toll of low investment spending on broader economic recovery in the latest recession. In contrast to PCE-related employment, total employment expanded faster in than in as investment spending began to show stronger recovery see figure 9 —nonetheless, the overall employment growth rate remained lower than rates typically seen following recessions.

In addition to slow consumer-related employment growth, declining government-related employment and diminished export-related growth all hindered overall job growth in Total employment stood 3. Long-run trends. Despite the historic decline in spending, consumers nevertheless supported a higher proportion of jobs during the latest recession than they had from the inception of the data series in through , although the percentage of employment related to consumer spending from to was still within the long-run historic range see figure 3.

Between and , consumer-related employment fluctuated between 60 and 62 percent of total employment—at the lower end of the historic range dating to the late s—when the percentage of investment-related employment increased to fuel economic expansion. But in , the worst year of the recession, PCE-related employment increased to 63 percent of U. In fact, investment-related employment declined to levels previously unobserved in this time series which, as previously noted, dates back to The larger role of consumption during the latest recession and recovery reflects its stability in comparison with other GDP components in the business cycle; the relative stability has been a consistent pattern with all recessions following WWII.

The relative stability also reflects the positive performance of specific sectors for PCE-related employment in the recession, as is discussed in the next section. Furthermore, the larger percentage of PCE-related employment as a share of all employment underscores the severity of the recession. As seen in figure 3, PCE-related employment as a percentage of all employment tends to increase during economic contractions, when investment-related employment declines more rapidly, and decrease during expansions, when investment-related employment rises more quickly.

Figures 7 and 8 also demonstrate the volatility of each GDP component and the whole economy for output and employment and further reveal the relative stability of PCE. This section analyzes PCE-related employment at the major sector and detailed industry levels, including the most consumer-dependent industries, from through For major sectors, it analyzes overall — employment changes, specific declines in the year when consumer-related employment constituted the majority of job declines , and the recovery.

For detailed industries, the research focuses on — changes exclusively. The section then concludes with an analysis of long-run sector trends that were affected by the recession. PCE-related employment by major sector. A few sectors were not as affected by the latest recession, and they added PCE-related employment from to Because of the aging of baby boomers and the increased demand for health care, the health care and social assistance industry added nearly 1. With tight economic conditions, enrollment in postsecondary education programs increased—especially community colleges—leading to over , more PCE-related jobs in educational services.

The Economy Invariably Manages To Grow Long After The Housing Market Peaks

State and local government employment related to consumers grew 2. These jobs included mostly transportation and enterprises such as utilities, transit systems including parking and tolls , and gambling. Consumer-related employment also increased, by 7,, in private utilities. The remaining sectors were responsible for nearly 4.